532
FXUS65 KTWC 171946
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1246 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MANY NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, THAT WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY PUSH
WEDNESDAY. THESE ARE ALSO CONSIDERED BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS BUT THE
ONLY COOLING WILL BE FOR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, AND THEN REBOUNDING RIGHT BACK UPWARDS ON
THURSDAY. LOCALES FROM TUCSON WESTWARD WILL SEE NO COOLING ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AS ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MITIGATED
BY DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY WINDS. THE EASTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE LOCALES NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO EASTERLY WINDS SUCH AS PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO,
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AND TYPICALLY FAVORED MOUNTAIN GAP AREAS.
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE'RE
LOOKING BEYOND TOWARDS CHRISTMAS DAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
OUR WEATHER PATTERN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TROUGH AROUND
CHRISTMAS, HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GLANCE BY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF COOLING BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS FAR SOUTH.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 19/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS (CIRRUS) AOA 20K FEET THROUGH 18/03Z, THEN BECOMING
GENERALLY SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH 18/15Z, THEN ELY-SELY
8-16 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS, MOST LIKELY IMPACTING KTUS
TERMINAL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT
IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH EAST WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH,
GENERALLY IN EASTERN EXPOSED AREAS OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE,
WINDS MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE DEC 17 DEC 18 DEC 19
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 78 83/2013 79 80/2023 81 81/1917
AJO 76 81/1980 80 83/1980 81 81/1950
KITT PEAK 62 68/1980 65 70/2013 65 68/2003
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 78 83/2023 82 82/1979 81 83/1955
PICACHO PEAK 70 79/1988 77 76/1998 76 76/2023
SAFFORD AG STATION 71 73/1980 70 74/1980 70 75/1969
SIERRA VISTA FD 73 78/1980 69 79/2013 73 79/1917
TOMBSTONE 73 81/2016 69 84/1950 71 81/1950
WILLCOX 70 74/1939 67 75/1980 68 72/2023
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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