383
FXUS65 KTWC 180842
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
142 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING 12-16 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UP AGAINST
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND
INCLUDING THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KTUS).
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO ARIZONA TODAY, EXPECT A SURFACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO
AND BACK INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. EXPECT BREEZY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH TO DEVELOP
TODAY AS THIS HAPPENS WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACTS OCCURING IN
AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SUCH AS THE
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY, PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA AND
FAVORED MOUNTAIN GAP AREAS. AS THE WIND FUNNELS THROUGH MOUNTAIN
GAPS, SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM BEGINING TO INFLUENCE THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THOSE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW FOR PLANNING PURPOSES, THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING RIGHT NOW...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
UNTIL THEN, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
TRY TO SCRATCH THOSE RECORDS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 19/12Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH 18/15Z, THEN ELY-SELY 10-16 KTS WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 KTS, MOST LIKELY IMPACTING THE KTUS AND KDUG
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING AFTER
19/05Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT
IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35
MPH, GENERALLY IN EASTERN EXPOSED AREAS OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, WINDS MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE WED DEC 18 THU DEC 19 FRI DEC 20
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 80 80/2023 81 81/1917 80 80/2003
AJO 81 83/1980 81 81/1950 80 80/1955
KITT PEAK 65 70/2013 66 68/2003 65 67/2003
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 82 82/1979 81 83/1955 81 82/1950
PICACHO PEAK 77 76/1998 76 76/2023 77 76/2003
SAFFORD AG STATION 70 74/1980 70 75/1969 71 72/1969
SIERRA VISTA FD 69 79/2013 74 79/1917 72 73/2003
TOMBSTONE 69 84/1950 72 81/1950 71 80/1950
WILLCOX 67 75/1980 69 72/2023 68 75/1981
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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