468
FXUS65 KTWC 182101
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
201 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY ONCE AGAIN UNDER
SUNNY SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. SO
FAR TODAY THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO BORDER NEAR SAN SIMON WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 24-36 MPH AS
OF 2PM. THIS IS THANKS TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM NEW MEXICO
THAT CAME THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO STICK AROUND THANKS TO THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS DOMINATING THE AREA. THE STRONGEST DAYS OF THE
RIDGE STILL CONTINUE TO BE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AFTER THIS, WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEE. WITH
THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM, ANY CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO THE DRY
STREAK LOOKS TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 20/00Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS ELY-SELY 10-16 KTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS, MOST LIKELY IMPACTING THE KTUS AND
KDUG TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS AND BECOME TERRAIN
DRIVEN LATE THIS EVENING AFTER 19/05Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT
IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35
MPH, GENERALLY IN EASTERN EXPOSED AREAS OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, WINDS MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE WED DEC 18 THU DEC 19 FRI DEC 20
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 80 80/2023 82 81/1917 81 80/2003
AJO 81 83/1980 81 81/1950 80 80/1955
KITT PEAK 65 70/2013 66 68/2003 65 67/2003
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 82 82/1979 81 83/1955 80 82/1950
PICACHO PEAK 77 76/1998 75 76/2023 77 76/2003
SAFFORD AG STATION 70 74/1980 70 75/1969 71 72/1969
SIERRA VISTA FD 69 79/2013 73 79/1917 73 73/2003
TOMBSTONE 69 84/1950 72 81/1950 72 80/1950
WILLCOX 67 75/1980 68 72/2023 68 75/1981
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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