891
FXUS65 KTWC 190903
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
203 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND. A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL THEN COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEGINING CHRISTMAS DAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UP AGAINST
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND
INCLUDING THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KTUS).
THE UPPER RIDGE IMPACTING OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IS EXPECTED TO
WANE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. A LONGWAVE BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW IMPULSES IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. GIVEN THIS SHIFT,
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO ERODE
BEGINING CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW, THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING RIGHT NOW...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 20/12Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS ELY-SELY 7-12 KTS
THROUGH 19/19Z THEN UNDER 10 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING DISTURBANCE THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS CHRISTMAS DAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE THU DEC 19 FRI DEC 20 SAT DEC 21
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 81 81/1917 81 80/2003 80 80/1917
AJO 81 81/1950 81 80/1955 79 80/1981
KITT PEAK 66 68/2003 66 67/2003 65 67/2003
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 81 83/1955 81 82/1950 80 81/1969
PICACHO PEAK 76 76/2023 78 76/2003 75 79/2005
SAFFORD AG STATION 70 75/1969 72 72/1969 72 71/1979
SIERRA VISTA FD 73 79/1917 73 73/2003 75 77/1969
TOMBSTONE 72 81/1950 72 80/1950 74 75/1955
WILLCOX 69 72/2023 69 75/1981 71 73/2003
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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