310
FXUS65 KTWC 192034
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
134 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND. A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL THEN COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEGINING CHRISTMAS DAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS ONCE AGAIN UNDER SUNNY SKIES
WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND TODAY IS THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WINDS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WE ARE ON TRACK TO POTENTIALLY BREAK MORE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND NEAR TO RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO STICK AROUND
THANKS TO THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS DOMINATING THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST DAYS OF THE RIDGE STILL CONTINUE TO BE TODAY
AND TOMORROW BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AFTER THIS, WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. WITH THE CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM, ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (20-30%) IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE DRY STREAK LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 21/00Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS ELY-SELY 7-12 KTS
THROUGH 03/20Z THEN AGAIN FROM 17/20Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, SFC WINDS ELY- SELY UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING DISTURBANCE THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS CHRISTMAS DAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE THU DEC 19 FRI DEC 20 SAT DEC 21
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 80 81/1917 81 80/2003 81 80/1917
AJO 81 81/1950 81 80/1955 79 80/1981
KITT PEAK 66 68/2003 66 67/2003 65 67/2003
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 81 83/1955 82 82/1950 80 81/1969
PICACHO PEAK 76 76/2023 78 76/2003 75 79/2005
SAFFORD AG STATION 70 75/1969 72 72/1969 71 71/1979
SIERRA VISTA FD 73 79/1917 73 73/2003 75 77/1969
TOMBSTONE 72 81/1950 72 80/1950 74 75/1955
WILLCOX 69 72/2023 68 75/1981 71 73/2003
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
TETRAULT
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