851
FXUS65 KTWC 201000
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND. A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEGINING CHRISTMAS DAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ON A
RELATIVELY BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAS BEEN DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER.
WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY WILL ADEQUATELY CAPTURE THIS RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN.
TODAY'S DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES FOR TUCSON
SET BACK IN 2003 WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. THE ONLY NOTABLE DIFFERENCE
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OCCASIONAL SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THEY MAY NOT PROVIDE
MUCH SHADE, BUT THESE SPECTACULARLY THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MADE UP OF TINY ICE CRYSTALS AND MAKE FOR BEAUTIFUL PHOTOS OF OUR
SONORAN DESERT.
THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY A MERE DEGREE OR TWO. HOWEVER, WE MAY SEE A
MORE NOTABLE COOL DOWN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. IN ADDITION TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TRANSITION. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, BUT
THE SYSTEM IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHEAST AZ, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 21/12Z.
SKC TO OCNL SCT AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS MOSTLY NE
TO SE DIRECTION LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING DISTURBANCE THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS CHRISTMAS DAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 20-
FOOT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE DEC 20 DEC 21 DEC 22
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 81 80/2003 81 80/1917 79 82/1917
AJO 81 80/1955 79 80/1981 78 80/2016
KITT PEAK 67 67/2003 66 67/2003 64 64/1962
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 82 82/1950 81 81/1969 79 82/1955
PICACHO PEAK 77 76/2003 74 79/2005 73 79/2005
SAFFORD AG STATION 71 72/1969 71 71/1979 72 73/2021
SIERRA VISTA FD 72 73/2003 75 77/1969 76 75/2000
TOMBSTONE 72 80/1950 74 75/1955 75 81/1950
WILLCOX
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DVS
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