043
FXUS65 KTWC 202103
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
203 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND. A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEGINING CHRISTMAS DAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD AGAIN TODAY LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH OR EXCEED RECORDS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN FLATTENS OUT SOME MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
IDAHO. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THEN "COOL" 2-3 DEGREES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ENSEMBLES BRINGING
A COUPLE OF A TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST MOVES THROUGH
AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
QUICKLY IT MOVES THROUGH. THE SECOND MOVES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SECOND TROUGH. THE GEFS
SHOWS IT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY AND CONTINUING EAST, WHILE THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERLY AND QUICKER PATH WITH THE
TROUGH POSSIBLY BECOMING CLOSED OVER MEXICO. BOTH SYSTEMS LOOK TO
BE ON THE DRYER SIDE WITH JUST 15-25 POPS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
MORE DEGREES WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WILL STILL BE 6-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 22/00Z.
FEW TO SCT AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS AOA 20K FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THEN BECOMING SKC. SFC WINDS MOSTLY NE TO SE DIRECTION
LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN TURN W/NW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING DISTURBANCE THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. 20- FOOT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE DEC 20 DEC 21 DEC 22
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 81 80/2003 82 80/1917 82 82/1917
AJO 81 80/1955 79 80/1981 79 80/2016
KITT PEAK 67 67/2003 66 67/2003 64 64/1962
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 82 82/1950 81 81/1969 80 82/1955
PICACHO PEAK 77 76/2003 75 79/2005 73 79/2005
SAFFORD AG STATION 71 72/1969 71 71/1979 72 73/2021
SIERRA VISTA FD 72 73/2003 75 77/1969 76 75/2000
TOMBSTONE 72 80/1950 74 75/1955 75 81/1950
WILLCOX 68 75/1981 71 73/2003 72 72/1955
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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