402
FXUS65 KTWC 022126
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
226 PM MST FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO SATURDAY THEN COOL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GENERALLY DRY FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...IT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY RESULTING
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CLOUD BUILD-UPS IN THE SKY ISLANDS AND ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY AND POINTS NORTHWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAK CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS. AT THE SURFACE, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM NEW MEXICO AND WHILE IT WON'T
HAVE MUCH OF A PUSH WESTWARD IN OUR FORECAST AREA, WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME A BIT BREEZY IN PORTIONS OF GRAHAM,
GREENLEE AND FAR NE COCHISE COUNTY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO MAINLY FROM THE SAFFORD AREA NORTHEASTWARD. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS SHEARED OUT AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE IN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY STILL A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SW ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY
RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
SUNDAY FROM THE TUCSON AREA EASTWARD. MORE INFORMATION ON THAT IN
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE LOCALES BEING ACROSS PINAL COUNTY AND BETWEEN WILLCOX
AND THE NM BORDER. MEANWHILE, AS INCREASED MOISTURE WITH SOME
DYNAMICAL FORCING APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE LOW, THERE ARE SLIGHT
CHANCES (10% TO 20%) OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PINAL
COUNTY AND THE WESTERN DESERTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND ON MONDAY AND THERE
REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW QUICKLY
THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIGS BACK IN
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT MOST LOCALES SHOULD
STAY DRY MONDAY (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE 30
TO 40% SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE) BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF LATER
SHIFTS NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SOME VALLEYS AS THE
ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW, MODEST MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUD BUILD-UPS. MOST NOTABLE ON MONDAY WILL BE
THE CHILLY MAY TEMPERATURES WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 72 DEGREES IN
TUCSON. THIS WOULD BE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE MONTH OF
MAY FOR TUCSON SINCE 2018. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL
LEVELS ON MONDAY WITH A FEW STRONGER BREEZES NEAR THE NM BORDER.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROADER UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SHOWER CHANCES TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY,
WITH WARMING CONTINUING EACH DAY THEREAFTER. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY WILL BE BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
AND HEIGHTS INCREASE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 04/00Z. SKC-SCT CLOUDS 12-15K FT AGL.
AREAS TO THE NE OF KSAD WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 6-10K FT AGL AFT
THRU 03/02Z AND AGAIN AFT 03/18Z. SFC WINDS WLY 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFT 03/02Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KSAD WHERE WINDS
BECOME SELY AT 10-20 KTS THRU 03/20Z BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.
ELSEWHERE, SLY/SWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AFT 03/19Z THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE SWLY/WLY 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
THERE WILL BE A PUSH OF SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY BEFORE
DIMINISHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
SUNDAY FROM THE TUCSON AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG
THE NM BORDER WHILE IT IS MORE MARGINAL FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA INCLUDING TUCSON WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
MORE BORDERLINE. PER COORDINATION WITH EPZ, WILL OPT TO DEFER
POTENTIAL HEADLINE UPGRADES TO LATER SHIFTS. MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THEN GRADUAL WARMING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH TYPICAL
SPRING AFTERNOON BREEZES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ150>153.
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