602
FXUS65 KTWC 032131
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
231 PM MST SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...IT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST
OF TUCSON. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CENTURY MARK RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON.
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WERE BUILDING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM,
GREENLEE, AND COCHISE COUNTIES WHERE A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TOMORROW WE'LL SEE A SIMILAR STORY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AGAIN, BUT THIS TIME SLIGHT CHANCES (15 TO
30%) WILL EXTEND WEST OVER PINAL COUNTY AND INTO FAR WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY. AGAIN, A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
LOOKING PREDOMINATELY DRY, UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER IMPORTANT ELEMENT TO DISCUSS IS THE WIND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF COCHISE
COUNTY. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON WHERE A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST TOMORROW. REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LEAD TO SHARP WARMING AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK
AGAIN.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 05/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10K-15K FEET NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6K-10K FEET NEAR
AND NORTH OF KSAD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS AT KTUS-KOLS-KSAD
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT KSAD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASING
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER 04/15Z. WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. 6K-10K
FOOT CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 152. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 152, REPLACING THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING, WITH
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF COCHISE
COUNTY. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS WELL. FIRE DANGER
REMAINS HIGH DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY, AS
FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY. IN ZONES WEST OF 152 MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT STILL POCKETS OF NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE,
MAINLY IN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A
SHARP WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ152.
PUBLIC...VAN STRATTEN
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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