779
FXUS65 KTWC 062130
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR REACHING THE CENTURY MARK IN THE
TUCSON METRO AREA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING'S SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED WITH
CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE VERY WEAK ECHOES. SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT THE SUN IS STARTING TO BREAK THROUGH IN
SOME AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
CURRENT TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S. WITH TWO EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS. ONE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE OTHER IS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE NEW MEXICO LOW THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, AND ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER IN ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA ROTATES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH LAS VEGAS THEN INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE OTHER LOW MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH
ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY UNDER 0.10" WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. ENSEMBLES KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TUCSON BEING BACK AROUND 90
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM FURTHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TUCSON FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES EACH DAY. CURRENT NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 100 DEGREE HIGHS AT KTUS ARE 5% FRIDAY, 25%
SATURDAY, 63% SUNDAY, AND 38% MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN EAST TO
WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP FRIDAY AND STICKS AROUND THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS
IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 08/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS 7K-10K FEET AGL, THEN SKC-FEW OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
BKN-OVC AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 4K-7K FT IN -SHRA. SFC
WINDS W-NW 8-14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 07/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 25 PERCENT. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
RETURNING TO THE SINGE DIGITS. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREAS EAST OF TUCSON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IN THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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