455
FXUS65 KTWC 070847
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
147 AM MST WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. BEGINNING TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER EACH DAY REACHING NEAR OR AT 100
DEGREES BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER, WE
WILL BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THE SLOW MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT HAS SAT IN THE REGION IS FINALLY GOING TO PUSH ITS
WAY EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO, THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY BEGIN TO FORM AROUND 1 TO 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9 TO 10 PM TONIGHT. MEMBERS SHOW THAT THE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY, MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA, AND END IN NORTHEASTERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER 0.10" WITH SOME
STORMS CAPABLE OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. SOME SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL STILL BE
IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 8 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
ONCE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD, LEADING TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL PEAK OVER
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S BY FRIDAY AND 100+ DEGREES BY SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AS WELL, IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY, MINOR
HEATRISK WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF TUCSON. BY SUNDAY TUCSON EASTWARD WILL BE IN
MODERATE HEATRISK, MEANING THAT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION MAY BE IMPACTED.
THIS MAY ALSO IMPACT SOME HEALTH SYSTEMS AND HEAT- SENSITIVE
INDUSTRIES.
LONG RANGE ECMWF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THIS WARMING
TREND WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED. A TROUGH APPEARS TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN US THAT MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN OUR AREA. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS A 40-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LEANING TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. TIME WILL TELL HOW THIS EXACTLY WILL UNFOLD.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 08/12Z.
CURRENTLY, SKC TO FEW CLOUDS AOA 10-15K FT AGL FOCUSED EAST OF
TUCSON NEAR KSAD. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TO FEW TO SCT AOA
5-10K FT AGL BY 07/18Z THEN TO SCT TO BKN AOA 5-10K FT AGL BY
07/22Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND 08/04Z BECOMING
SKC TO FEW AOA 10-15K FT AGL BY 08/08Z. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY 07/21Z
CONTINUING THROUGH 08/04Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY
BETWEEN 07/20Z THOUGH 08/04Z. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES RETURNING TO THE SINGE DIGITS BY FRIDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST OF TUCSON AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MALARKEY
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