511
FXUS65 KTWC 072156
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
256 PM MST WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER EACH DAY REACHING NEAR OR AT 100 DEGREES BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SO FAR TODAY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING NEAR MT.
GRAHAM. HI-RES CAMS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING 3-4 PM MST AND CONTINUE THROUGH 9-10 PM MST. WITH THESE
SHOWERS, THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OR TWO, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE IS A BUILDING RIDGE THAT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES
TO LOOK THE WARMEST, WITH THE HOTTEST DAY ON SUNDAY. CURRENT NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING 100 DEGREES OR WARMER AT 50% AT THE
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AREAS TUCSON
WESTWARD WILL BE IN MODERATE HEATRISK WHERE HEAT ILLNESSES CAN
AFFECT THOSE THAT LACK ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR
HYDRATION AND THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
THIS HEAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S-80S AND AS OF NOW THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DRY, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 09/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 8-10-15K FT AGL, THEN BECOMING SKC-FEW CLOUDS
AFT 08/06Z. SFC WINDS W/NW AT 10-15KTS THRU 08/04Z THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FROM 08/21Z THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (10-20%) TODAY BETWEEN 07/22Z THOUGH 08/04Z.
SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES RETURNING TO THE SINGE DIGITS BY FRIDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST OF TUCSON AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
TETRAULT
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