318
FXUS65 KTWC 080817
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
117 AM MST THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
TREND WARMER EACH DAY, WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING NEAR 100
DEGREES BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING IS DEFINED BY A WEAK
UPPER-LOW ACROSS FAR SE AZ/NE SONORA MX SHEARING OUT INTO THE
BASE OF A MEAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST, AND A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA/BAJA MX. THE WEAK SHOWERS THAT
WERE PERSISTING ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING HAVE SINCE
MOVED EAST INTO SW NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HIGH CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY, THEN
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER-RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA, WE WILL SEE A SURFACE HIGH MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, RESULTING IN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS EAST OF TUCSON FRIDAY, STRENGTHENING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER-HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS FORCING A TIGHTER
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, LOCALIZED AND/OR
BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COCHISE, GRAHAM
AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE BIG STORY IS GOING TO BE THE WARMING TREND ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
NUDGING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. THE NBM PROBABILITIES (08/05Z)
FOR MEETING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES AT THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT (KTUS) IS 9% SATURDAY, 74% SUNDAY, THEN BACK DOWN TO 17%
MONDAY.
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WILL RESIDE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...SO IT SHOULD STAY DRY,
BUT WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS/POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPACTING THE REGION
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 09/12Z. SKC-SCT CLOUDS 10-15K FT AGL
FROM TUCSON EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD WEST OF TUCSON. SFC WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN FOLLOWING NORMAL
DIURNAL TRENDS LESS THAN 12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES RETURNING TO THE SINGE
DIGITS FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS EAST OF TUCSON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS FEATURE, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED/BRIEF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS COCHISE, GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, THE WARM CONDITIONS WE WILL EXPERIENCE TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND WILL BACK OFF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRY TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
RETURNING TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPACTING THE REGION TUESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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