809
FXUS65 KTWC 260853
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
153 AM MST MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. A WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
AND PUSH INTO ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM WON'T BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS AS DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES/GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE
UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY.
FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN
GETS A BIT MORE COMPLEX AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL WILL MEANDER OFF
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST TRENDS
ON THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE THE LOW A BIT FURTHER WEST WHICH
INITIALLY ALLOWS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER OVER OUR
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HOTTER TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE,
WE'LL PROBABLY NEED TO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LATEST NBM HAS A 20% PROBABILITY OF 105
DEGREES IN TUCSON ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SEEP IN FROM THE EAST NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER ON FRIDAY, WITH
SOME BUILD-UPS ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. CAN'T RULE A DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER. THE BIGGER MOISTURE
PUSH WILL COME THIS WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTH AS THE COMBINATION OF THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND SOME
MOISTURE DRAWN UP/ENHANCED BY A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF
SOUTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO AZ. GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE UPPER LOW
PLACEMENT AND MOISTURE FIELDS, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE NOW TRENDED MORE TOWARDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS WHOLE SETUP IS STILL DAYS 5-7
SO WE'LL CONTINUE FINE TUNING THE DETAILS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/12Z.
SKC THRU THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10
KTS THIS MORNING. AFT 26/20Z, SFC WINDS BECOME NWLY/WLY 8-14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. SFC WINDS THEN ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 27/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH VALUES AT ALL ELEVATIONS, WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. EXPECT SEASONALLY TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZES/GUSTS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE CHANGEABLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL INITIALLY MAINLY
OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS IN FAR EASTERN AREAS (ALONG THE ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO STATE LINE) BY FRIDAY, WHERE BUILD-UPS MAY RESULT IN A
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS, SATURDAY COULD SEE MORE BUILD-UPS WITH
DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
STRONGER BUILD-UPS TO PRODUCE WETTING RAIN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WOULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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