196
FXUS65 KTWC 262150
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL DRAW
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE CALENDAR CHANGES FROM MAY TO JUNE.
DISCUSSION
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITING THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON WAS BRINGING SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA ON THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.
THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF, CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS STAY DRY WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS. A PUSH OF MOISTURE WEST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO THE AZ/NM STATE LINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE WEST OF BAJA CA WHILE OFF THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST A TROPICAL SYSTEM, CURRENTLY INVEST 90E,
WILL BE MOVING TO THE NW. HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD END UP HOTTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING WEST OF BAJA CA WHICH WILL PUMP UP
THE RIDGE A BIT. AT THIS TIME I DIDN'T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY'S AND SATURDAY'S
HIGHS BUT TUCSON COULD SEE ITS FIRST 105 DEGREE HIGH OF 2025 ON
EITHER DAY. LATEST PROBABILITIES HAS 31% CHANCE ON FRIDAY AND 35%
CHANCE ON SATURDAY.
THE UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH BY THE UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA ACROSS THE
AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LESS THAN 30% OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY AS WE TURN THE
CALENDAR FROM MAY TO JUNE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 28/00Z.
KTUS W, SKC THRU 27/07Z THEN BCMG SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL FROM
W TO E THRU 28/13Z AND REMAINING THAT WAY THRU END OF VALID PD. E
KTUS, SKC THRU 27/14Z, THEN BCMG SCT CLOUDS AOA 29K FT AGL FROM W
TO E THRU END OF VALID PD.
SFC WINDS THRU 27/03Z AND THEN AGAIN AFT 27/19Z, NWLY/WLY 8-14
KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. AT OTHER TIMES, LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH VALUES AT ALL ELEVATIONS, WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. EXPECT SEASONALLY TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZES/GUSTS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE CHANGEABLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL INITIALLY MAINLY
OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS IN FAR EASTERN AREAS (ALONG THE ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO STATE LINE) BY FRIDAY, WHERE BUILD-UPS MAY RESULT IN A
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS, SATURDAY COULD SEE MORE BUILD-UPS WITH
DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
STRONGER BUILD-UPS TO PRODUCE WETTING RAIN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WOULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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