008
FXUS65 KTWC 241038
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
338 AM MST TUE JUN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN COCHISE COUNTY INTO GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR WEST AS TUCSON TO NOGALES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS WEEK MAINLY CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY
BETWEEN A TROUGH BASE SITTING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HAS DRAWN RICH MOISTURE UP FROM MEXICO THROUGH NEW MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, CREATING A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN NEW MEXICO TODAY FROM WPC. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS
MOISTURE FEED WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST, LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT
(10Z) GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVATIONS DEPICT 1-1.3
INCH VALUES FROM THE SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY BORDER SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. BY MID-DAY TODAY MODELS INDICATE THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD BE WELL INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, GENERALLY NEAR
AND EAST OF A DUDLEYVILLE-TUCSON-NOGALES LINE.
A FEW LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE
PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AS DEPICTED BY RECENT
HRRR RUNS, THOUGH MORE LIKELY THE MORNING RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACCAS AND VIRGA. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF MOISTURE AND PUSH
NORTH. TUCSON TO NOGALES WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
MOISTURE FIELD, THEREFORE SEE THE LOWER END OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TODAY AS WELL AS POTENTIAL RAINFALL
RATES. FURTHER EAST THROUGH COCHSIE AND INTO GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500-850 J/KG AND SUBSEQUENTLY
THE 00Z HREF LPMM (LOCAL PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN) INCLUDES
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES. THOUGH OVERALL FLOODING
THREATS ARE LOW, SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
THE OVERLAP OF RICHER MOISTURE AND CORRIDOR FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN AS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE IN FROM SONORA IN THE EVENING,
WHICH MAY POSE A MODEST FLOODING RISK IN LOW AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER
STORMS, HOWEVER SEVERE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY.
A SIMILAR PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE COMING DAYS, WITH SOME
VARIANCE IN MOISTURE QUALITY AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
GUIDANCE PUSHES MOISTURE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
CHANCES KEPT TO COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. A SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE FIELD AWAY FROM
PINAL THROUGH EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME A MORE DIFFUSE AFTER
THE PREVIOUS TROUGH LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION, REDUCING
CONFIDENCE IN DAY TO DAY CHANCES AS MOISTURE QUALITY WILL DEPEND
ON OUTFLOWS AND PREVIOUS DAYS ACTIVITIES. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE LOSS OF THE PREVIOUS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN.
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROUGH,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. WITH
THE RIDGING PROCESS THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A FAVORED LOCATION TO USHER IN GOOD
MONSOON MOISTURE, THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN GLOBAL MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE, WHICH ADDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF MOISTURE
ARRIVAL.
AVIATION
FEW-SCT CEILINGS AT 9K-13K THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE AFTER 25/03Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND EAST OF A KSAD-KFHU LINE AFTER 24/18Z WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOLS-KTUS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHING NEAR KTUS-
KOLS AFTER 25/00Z, LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING IN EASTERN
TERMINALS INCLUDING NEAR KSAD-KDUG. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE UNDER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS TODAY OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY UP TO 12 KTS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY IN EASTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTY WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. MINIMUM VALUES 10-20 PERCENT WEST OF
THIS AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AS
FAR WEST AS TUCSON TO NOGALES. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND UNDER 15 MPH, THOUGH BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN DAILY THIS WEEK BUT MAINLY FOR FAR EASTERN
AREAS CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. CONDITIONS LIKELY DRY THIS
BY THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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