280
FXUS65 KTWC 251021
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
321 AM MST WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY IN EASTERN LOCATIONS, MAINLY CLOSER
TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. TEMPERATURES BECOME HOTTER THIS WEEKEND
AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE
END OF TODAY, NUDGING THE MOISTURE FIELD EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING ONE INCH MOSTLY IN AND EAST OF
COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THESE COUNTIES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH LIKELY WITH A BIT LESS COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER AND CAPE VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ARE DOWN FROM YESTERDAY, WHICH WILL LOWER THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONG WIND GUSTS, BLOWING DUST, AND ISOLATED FLOODING. AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A STRONGER WIND GUST WITH SOME BLOWING DUST
CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE TAMER SIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
WITH LESS OF A SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE ON THE PREVIOUS MOISTURE FEED
OUT EAST, MOISTURE SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS
WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN EASTERN
LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FULLY DROP OFF AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES HEIGHT
RISES AND RIDGING. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MODERATE HEATRISK RETURNING TO THE REGION.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD DRIFT TOWARDS
THE FOUR CORNERS AND BEGIN TO DRAW MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. MINOR DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXIST
REGARDING TIMING, WITH THE CURRENT PROBABILISTIC TREND BEING
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS EARLY AS MONDAY BUT MORE LIKELY
ARRIVING BY NEXT WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. IT'S WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO
LATE NEXT WEEK PERIOD WHERE EXTENDED RANGE TOOLS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES (NSSL GEFS MACHINE
LEARNING SEVERE PROBABILITIES, CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS) AND THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA IN THEIR 8-14 DAY
HAZARDS OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 26/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 9K-13K FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ESPECIALLY EAST OF KTUS-KOLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 25/18Z NEAR AND EAST OF KSAD-KFHU DIMINISHING
AFTER 25/03Z, THOUGH LINGERING LONGER NEAR AND EAST OF KDUG.
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WITH STRONGER CELLS. OTHERWISE WINDS
LIGHT AND UNDER 12 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUST UP TO 20
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN TODAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF COCHISE,
GREENLEE, AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTIES. OTHERWISE 6-12 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS OF INCREASED MOISTURE TODAY, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND UNDER 15 MPH
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
DRIER AND BECOMING HOTTER THIS WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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