925
FXUS65 KTWC 252216
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
316 PM MST WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY IN EASTERN
LOCATIONS, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. TEMPERATURES
BECOME HOTTER THIS WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
DISCUSSION
THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM CHIHUAHUA MX INTO NM. HAVE SEEN A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
ON FRIDAY EAST OF TUCSON. HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY.
THIS WEEKEND: HEATING UP AS UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE.
THE HEAT PEAKS ON MONDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 108 TO
112 DEGREE RANGE. NO HEAT HEADLINES YET WITH LATER SHIFTS LIKELY
HOISTING ONE FOR MONDAY. ON THE CONVECTION SIDE, MONDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO HAVE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNDER POSSIBLE RIM
SHOT SCENARIO. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE MONSOON WILL KICK IN LATER
NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. CPC KEY
MESSAGING HAS A HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING FOR
THE AREA DURING THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 9K-13K FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ESPECIALLY EAST OF KTUS-KOLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 25/18Z NEAR AND EAST OF KSAD-KFHU DIMINISHING
AFTER 25/03Z, THOUGH LINGERING LONGER NEAR AND EAST OF KDUG.
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WITH STRONGER CELLS. OTHERWISE WINDS
LIGHT AND UNDER 12 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUST UP TO 20
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN DRY
THIS WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING EVERY DAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HEATING UP THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND UNDER 15 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH FRIDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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