035
FXUS65 KTWC 261018
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
318 AM MST THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY IN EASTERN
LOCATIONS, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. TEMPERATURES
BECOME HOTTER THIS WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY BRING THE START TO THE
MONSOON SEASON.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE DERIVED MOISTURE PRODUCTS THIS MORNING
SHOW AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF DRY AIR INTO WESTERN GRAHAM AND
COCHISE COUNTIES. THIS HAS DROPPED FORECAST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TODAY TO AN AREA GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAFFORD, WILLCOX, AND SIERRA VISTA. WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW ONE INCH AND FORECAST CAPE VALUES ON THE WEAK SIDE IN THIS
AREA, STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH SHOULD BE LOW.
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A MARGINALLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT IN EASTERN
LOCATIONS THAN TODAY, BUT OTHERWISE A SIMILAR STORM STRENGTH
OUTLOOK WILL BE IN STORE. 00Z GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING IN WEAK
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES FRIDAY,
HOWEVER THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH AT THIS MOMENT
TO ADD NOTABLE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. BY MONDAY THIS RIDGE
WILL LIKELY HAVE BECOME AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. NAEFS GUIDANCE SHOWS 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER
ARIZONA AROUND THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, HIGHLIGHTING THE HEAT POTENTIAL. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA DESERT LOCATIONS ON MONDAY RUN FROM 108
TO 112.
THIS RIDGE ORIENTATION NEXT WEEK WILL ADDITIONALLY FAVOR THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEEDED TO START THE MONSOON SEASON. AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED
SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR A HIGH RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH IS WHEN
ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE HEAVILY FAVORED RICH MOISTURE TO SET IN. IN
THE INITIAL MOISTURE PUSH HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS INCLUDING STRONG WIND
GUSTS, BLOWING DUST, AND LIGHTNING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AS THE
INCOMING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE HOT AND INITIALLY DRY
ANTECEDENT ATMOSPHERE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/12Z.
FEW CLOUDS AT 10K FEET, OTHERWISE SKC THROUGH 26/18Z. FEW-SCT
CUMULUS AT 10K FEET WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF A KSAD- KFHU LINE AFTER
26/18Z, DIMINISHING AFTER 27/03Z. ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS
WITH STRONGER CELLS. OTHERWISE WINDS LIGHT AND UNDER 12 KTS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUST UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TOMORROW EAST OF TUCSON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 10
TO 20 PERCENT TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND UNDER 15 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A START TO THE
MONSOON SEASON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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