858
FXUS65 KTWC 251625
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES HEATING UP INTO THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK AS THE MONSOON TAKES A
BREAK. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO
TYPICAL MONSOON ACTIVITY.
UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER
AHEAD. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE VALLEYS FROM SATURDAY TO
MONDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD BEGINNING SUNDAY TO THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS, SPREADING INTO TUCSON MONDAY, THEN AREA WIDE BY
TUESDAY BRINGING BACK DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 314 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2025/
DISCUSSION
THE SKY WAS CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING
WITH TODAY SEEING LOTS OF SUN. PWATS RANGE FROM 0.45" TO 0.55" AND
THERE MAY BE SOME FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON S/SE
OF TUCSON. HIGHS UP TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS UP TO
6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE AROUND THROUGH MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE, WITH VALUES UP TO 1.5", MOVING IN MONDAY AND HANGING
AROUND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING BACK DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DETAILS STILL HAZY ON WHICH
DAY(S) WILL BE MORE ACTIVE. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 26/12Z.
SKC FOR MUCH OF THE VALID PD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS 10K-12K FT AGL BTWN 25/20Z AND 26/02Z MNLY S-SE OF KTUS.
SFC WINDS MAINLY UNDER 12 KTS WITH VERY LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 20
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HEATING UP INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A
RETURN TO TYPICAL MONSOON ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10-15 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT OR ABOVE
25 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE 20-40% THROUGH
TODAY AND HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DRYING CONSIDERABLY WITH
MIN RH VALUES OF 10-20% IN THE VALLEYS AND 15-30% IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING MIN RH VALUES 30-50% IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 15-30%
IN THE VALLEYS BEGINNING WITH THE EASTERN VALLEYS MONDAY THEN THE
REST OF THE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE/KEY MESSAGES...TETRAULT
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