285
FXUS65 KTWC 262101
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
201 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES HEATING UP THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK
AS THE MONSOON TAKES A BREAK. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA NEXT
WEEK FOR DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY CONDITIONS AND HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
-MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE VALLEYS WITH MAJOR HEATRISK FOR THE
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
-MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD BEGINNING SUNDAY TO THE FAR
EASTERN AREAS BRINGING MAINLY STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. BLOWING DUST
IS POSSIBLE.
-DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
MONSOON MOISTURE HAS TAKEN A LITTLE VACATION OUT TO
OUR EAST. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRADDLING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BRINGING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HAS PUSHED OUT OUR ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BUT WE WILL
SEE HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING ACROSS THE SKIES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A TROUGH TO OUR WEST, WE WILL BE WARMING UP
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND PEAKING OUT TOMORROW. A HOT AND DRY
WEEKEND FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
OUR MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM ITS EASTERN VACATION AND
START MAKING AN IMPACT BY LATE SUNDAY. A MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL
BE EVIDENT ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE AND IDEAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR THUNDERSTORM. HREF GUST POTENTIAL SHOW PULSES OF WINDS MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE THE SAME SIGNALS FOR THE STRONG
OUTFLOWS BUT WITH DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING.
SOME ARE EARLY AND SOME ARE LATE IN THE EVENING. OVERALL, THERE
WILL BE 15-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR STRONG GUSTS ALONG THE STATE
LINE. THIS WILL RAISE BLOWING DUST ISSUES BECAUSE THE LATEST NASA
SPORT LIS SOIL MOISTURE SHOWS VERY DRY POCKETS IN THE SAN SIMON,
WILLCOX, AND UP TOWARDS SAFFORD. DRY ENOUGH TO LOFT DUST PARTICLES
AND CAUSE TRAFFIC ISSUES.
BY MONDAY, THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PUSH MORE WEST AND DEEPER
ACROSS THE REGION TO GIVE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. AT FIRST, WE WILL BE FACING MORE OF A GUSTY WIND THREAT.
THERE WILL BE HIGH INSTABILITY DUE TO HOT CONDITIONS AND THE
INTERACTION OF THE MOIST (TO THE EAST) AND DRY AIR (TO THE WEST)
WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE LEVEL
THUNDERSTORM WINDS. ENSEMBLE MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL
BE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE BY TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, RAISING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS
TIME. THIS WILL COME WITH DAILY MONSOON CHALLENGES OF UP VERSUS
DOWN DAYS. A FEW CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE SHOWING A
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE VORTEX FORMING MONDAY NIGHT TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND JUMP STARTING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITIES EAST OF TUCSON. THIS IS EARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT ON
THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH THE USUAL CHALLENGES. ON THE
BRIGHT SIDE, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 28/00Z.
SKC TO SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE VALID PD.
SFC WINDS MAINLY UNDER 12 KTS WITH VERY LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 20
KTS. -TSRA AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS OF 30 KNOTS OR HIGHER WILL EXIST
STARTING AT 27/20Z THROUGH 28/06Z FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KSAD TO
KDUG LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. MONSOON
MOISTURE RETURNS LATE SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY, BRINGING BACK TO
THE TYPICAL MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUST UP 25 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARILY DIRECTION THROUGH THE
NEW WEEK BESIDES ANY THUNDERSTORM GUSTS. MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
ONCE THE MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS, WE WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
MIN RHS IN THE 20S WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ABOVE 45 PERCENT
THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY
WITH MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOWS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. BY
MONDAY, DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NEW WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
STRONGMAN
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