180
FXUS65 KTWC 271550
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN TO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING, THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY.
DAILY CHANCES FOR MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE
THROUGH THIS WEEK. FLASH FLOODING, BLOWING DUST, AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. WE
WILL START TO SEE THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE EAST. THE 12Z HREF CONTINUES TO SHOW PROBABILITIES OF
10-30 PERCENT OF STRONG GUSTS FROM DUNCAN SOUTH TO DOUGLAS.
THE FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE JUST ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE STATE LINE INTO NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE, THE EASTERN
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
ISSUES.
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING STORM OUTFLOWS WILL PUSH MOISTURE DEEPER
INTO THE REGION; OUR DEW POINTS WILL JUMP UP BY 15-20 DEGREES IN
THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES BY THE EARLY MORNING. THIS SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE BLOWING
DUST IN FAR EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
-MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING, BLOWING DUST, AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARRIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE.
-TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE
DIPPING CLOSER TO NORMAL AS MOISTURE INCREASES THIS WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 300 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2025/
OVER THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS A HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT WEST, TURNING MEAN
FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
EVENTUALLY INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING,
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS MOISTURE OF 1 INCH UP
TO 1.5 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
LATE TODAY, MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF COCHISE COUNTY.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE ARRIVAL TO THIS EVENING,
WHICH MAKES A THUNDERSTORM FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN AS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE DIMINISHING. IT LOOKS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF A) HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY AND B) WITH THE MOISTURE PUSH THROUGH
THE EVENING IN COCHISE TO SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
THIS EVENING MOISTURE PUSH SHOULD BE AIDED BY CONVECTION IN NEW
MEXICO, WHICH MAY ALSO DRIVE SOME BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
ADEQUATE CONFIDENCE FOR A BLOWING DUST HEADLINE IS LOW THIS
MORNING, BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HAVE ARRIVED, GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF
A DUDLEYVILLE-TUCSON-NOGALES LINE. ADDITIONALLY, THE ARRIVAL OF AN
EASTERLY SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE AN EXTRA BOOST FOR BOTH
INITIATION AND A WESTWARD SPREAD OF CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING,
POTENTIALLY INTO PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES. FORECAST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LIKELY TO BEGIN EXCEEDING 1.25 INCHES IN SOME AREAS
AND CAPE INCREASING ABOVE 1000 J/KG, RAIN RATES WILL BE ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WHILE JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR
SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN THE SUB- CLOUD LAYER FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND BLOWING DUST THREATS. THE FORECAST TUESDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE
OF MITIGATING FACTORS, AS MONSOON ACTIVITY FOLLOWING AN ACTIVE DAY TENDS
TO BE MUTED. HOWEVER THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT OF THE LINGERING
EASTERLY SHORTWAVE KEEPS AT LEAST SOME SORT OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME VARIATION DEPENDING ON PREVIOUS DAY'S
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 28/12Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS THROUGH 27/20Z. CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS NEAR AND EAST OF KTUS-KOLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM NEAR AND EAST OF
KSAD-KDUG. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES 8-15 PERCENT. MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATE
TODAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE FOR MONSOON ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE COMING WORK WEEK. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 12 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES MONDAY, THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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