116
FXUS65 KTWC 281012
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
312 AM MST MON JUL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF A DUDLEYVILLE-
TUCSON-NOGALES LINE.
-STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE BLOWING DUST. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
LIKELY BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
-MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
A WESTWARD PUSH OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THE ADVECTED LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT INDICATED RICHER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
(850-700MB) COMPARED TO HIGHER UP (700-500MB), AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DUE TO NEW MEXICO CONVECTION DRIVEN OUTFLOWS WHICH MADE THEIR WAY
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE WEST OVER THE COMING 24 HOURS,
ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO EVENTUALLY MOVE IN. TODAY HOWEVER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND A
SUBSEQUENT WIND THREAT, WHILE STILL LACKING TO PRODUCE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, WITH THE HIGHER
SIDE OF THAT RANGE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND THE LOW END
AROUND TUCSON TO NOGALES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY ALSO FOLLOW
THAT GRADIENT, INCLUDING HIGHER CHANCES ATOP MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, DRY AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND SUB-
CLOUD LAYER WILL PROVIDE A GUSTY WIND THREAT. RECENT HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS PRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVELY CONSISTENT SIGNAL
WITH A POCKET OF 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS IN CONVECTION COMING OFF
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO THE GILA RIVER VALLEY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD TODAY. ELSEWHERE ANY SIGNAL IS FAR LESS
ORGANIZED, BUT A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH BLOWING DUST WILL EXIST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE A PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT AGAIN A
LOW BUT NON- ZERO CHANCE CAN'T BE RULED OUT. IF THERE WAS ANY
CONCERN IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER.
BY TUESDAY EVEN RICHER PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH 1.25 TO NEAR 1.5 INCH VALUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WITH POTENTIAL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION
LINGERING TUESDAY MORNING, OVERALL COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN BUT
WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOW SIGNS OF A NORTHWARD SURGE OF GULF OF
CALIFORNIA MOISTURE, INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS WEEKEND SEES THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA, INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND AT LEAST TEMPORARILY PUSHING OUT MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHIFT THE HIGH BACK TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK HOWEVER WHICH SHOULD
BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 29/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 28/19Z MAINLY NEAR,
NORTHEAST TO EAST, AND SOUTH OF KTUS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY IN THE KSAD VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AFTER 29/03Z,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH KOLS-KDUG
FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR AND WEST OF A DUDLEYVILLE-TUCSON-
NOGALES LINE TODAY, WITH MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNING EAST. TO THE
WEST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 7-15 PERCENT EXPECTED WHILE
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT TO THE EAST. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE COMING
SEVERAL DAYS. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE WITH THIS
MOISTURE. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN TUESDAY ONWARDS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TERRAIN DRIVEN AND UNDER 12 MPH. DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN THIS COMING WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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