798
FXUS65 KTWC 282122
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 PM MST MON JUL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NEAR AND
EAST OF A DUDLEYVILLE- TUCSON-NOGALES LINE.
-MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
A LOT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WHICH
HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. THE 18Z SOUNDING PROFILE
HAS TWO INVERSIONS IN THE MID LEVELS, THIS EXPLAINS THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER AND EVEN THE HAZE. LAST NIGHT'S ACTIVITY FROM THE EAST
BOUGHT SOME LOFTED PARTICLES IN THE AIR, GIVING OUR HAZY SKIES FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE STOUT INVERSION HAS DELAYED THE CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH, WE DO HAVE THE INSTABILITY, IT WILL TAKE MORE
SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. THE CHANCES FOR REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS DWINDLING BY EACH PASSING HOUR. THE
LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT CAUGHT ON THE TRAIN FOR
LOWER RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED AREAS THAT WILL SEE A STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ESPECIALLY WITH BETTER SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY TO BREAK THROUGH
THE INVERSION (AND THE CIN).
TOMORROW, CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HIGHER THAN TODAY. WE WILL HAVE THE MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
A BETTER (CLEARER SKIES) ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THESE STORMS WILL BRING A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, IN PARTICULAR
IN AREAS EAST OF TUCSON.
DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND, WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND AND
OVERALL REDUCING MONSOON ACTIVITY. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW OUR
MOISTURE RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 30/00Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT AT 10K FEET AGL AND
ANOTHER LAYER AT 20-25K FT AGL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WEST OF TUCSON WITH A BRIEF CLEAR EAST IN THE
LATE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
NORTHEAST TO EAST, AND SOUTH OF KTUS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY IN THE KSAD VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AFTER
29/03Z, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH
KOLS- KDUG FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AFTER 28/18Z FOR KTUS AND EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE DAILY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN
RHS WILL GENERALLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR TUCSON EAST WHEREAS THE
TUCSON WEST WILL BE 15-20 PERCENT FOR THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE
DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE BEST WETTING CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12
MPH AND FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS. WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT DRYING
TREND THIS WEEKEND, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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