730
FXUS65 KTWC 291623
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW GRADE MONSOON DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT
KICK UP BLOWING DUST, MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, SO NO
CHANGES WERE MADE THE FORECAST. THE LATEST CAMS STILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE STORM ACTIVITY IN COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, BLOWING DUST FROM OUTFLOW WINDS, AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
-A LOW GRADE MONSOON DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT
KICK UP BLOWING DUST, MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.
-GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
-HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 314 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2025/
AN OVERALL DOWN MONSOON DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VIA GOES IMAGERY THIS MORNING RANGES
FROM AROUND 1 INCH FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES, TO 1.25 INCHES IN
SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. WHILE THIS WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS SHIFTED
BETTER SUPPORT FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AWAY FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. 00Z HREF PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS ARE BOTH FAIRLY TAME, THOUGH OF COURSE SOME
BLOWING DUST GETTING KICKED UP EAST OF TUCSON CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
WEDNESDAY SEES INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM AN
APPROACHING JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH SHOULD
BRING STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE ON THURSDAY, BEFORE FRIDAY SEES A TRANSITION
AWAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO CENTER NEAR AND WEST OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND WITH THIS
PATTERN SWITCH AS MOISTURE IS PUSHED OUT. ENSEMBLES ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING BACK TO THE EAST NEXT
WEEK, USHERING MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING RANGING FROM EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE NOTABLE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 30/12Z.
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 29/19Z WITH BASES AROUND 9K-13K
FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 29/21Z WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM TUCSON-NOGALES EASTWARD
TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 25
PERCENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH GREATER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM, OTHERWISE
WINDS GENERALLY BELLOW 12 MPH WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS. A DRYING TREND ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, LOWERING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND DROPPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE/KEY MESSAGES...TETRAULT
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