905
FXUS65 KTWC 231011
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
311 AM MST SAT AUG 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAY
TO DAY VARIABILITY ON COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN TRENDING DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN
EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE GREATER TUCSON AREA TO
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
HAS SEEN A JUMP IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S, THANKS TO LAST
NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WEST OF HERMOSILLO. DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THIS COMPLEX WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS. PWATS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 0.60"
NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER TO 1.70" OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY.
LOW-GRADE MONSOON THIS WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN BOTH
DAYS BEING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON. THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF SELLS TO AJO, WHERE HREF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES HAVE A 10% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH
AND THEN A 50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS REMAINING ON THE WARM TO LOCALLY HOT SIDE FOR LATE
AUGUST WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL
COUNTY AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY.
NEXT WEEK: AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES EAST INTO TEXAS, FLOW ALOFT
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, ALLOWING THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY OF COVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY THEN DRIER SW
FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO PUSH MOISTURE OUT AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE WAY
THIS MONSOON HAS BEEN BEHAVING CONFIDENCE ON NEXT WEEK IS ON THE
LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 24/12Z.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AOA 15K FT AGL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU
23/17Z. AFT 23/18Z, FEW-SCT 9K-12K FT AGL WITH ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA
WEST OF KTUS. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE E-SE LESS THAN 12 KTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH
ANY -TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY OF
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
15 MPH WITH THE AFTERNOON GUSTINESS INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RHS WILL
BE 15-20 PERCENT IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND 20-30 PERCENT IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO PROVIDE HIGHER WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND
COVERAGE AS WELL AS BETTER MIN RHS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ504>506.
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