692
FXUS65 KTWC 251046
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
346 AM MST MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY ON COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY THEN TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING THE NEEDED LIFT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AND BRING AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE FIRST ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF TUCSON WITH A
COUPLE CELLS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR/SE OF AJO THAT RESULTED IN A
COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE ARIZONA THRU
SUNRISE. THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY AND THEY PUSH WEST NORTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING. PWATS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH VALUES UP TO
AROUND 1.5" FROM TUCSON-NOGALES WEST. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WET MICROBURSTS, A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY WAS HOISTED ALONG WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR MAINLY TUCSON
WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE UP TO 2" OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR LEADING
TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS PORTIONS OUR OF
AREA IN SLGT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY (AND TUESDAY) WITH
THE SPC HIGHLIGHTING A MRGL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (WIND)
FROM TUCSON SOUTHWEST.
TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS MONDAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE FOCUS ON TUESDAY MIGHT END UP SHIFTING TO AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF TUCSON WHICH AREN'T EXPECTED TO GET AS MUCH
TODAY.
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY. THIS DRYING
TREND SHOULD TEND TO HOLD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY SE COCHISE COUNTY) BEFORE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS TODAY AND THEN
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK
UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 26/12Z.
SCT-BKN 9K-12K FT AGL. ISOLD -SHRA THRU 25/18Z. AFT 25/18Z
SCTD TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA FROM KOLS/KTUS WEST. EXPECT GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY TSRA OTRW SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
E-SE LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15
MPH WITH THE AFTERNOON GUSTINESS THIS WEEK. MIN RHS WILL BE 15-20
PERCENT IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND 20-30 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY THIS WEEK TO
PROVIDE HIGHER WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE AS WELL AS BETTER
MIN RHS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ501>505-514-515.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AZZ502-504-505.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ501.
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page