281
FXUS65 KTWC 260957
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 AM MST TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY ON COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN TRENDING WARMER INTO
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
VIRGA. PWATS RANGED FROM NEAR 1" ALONG AZ/NM BORDER TO 1.6" OVER
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. FOR TODAY, LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGHS
WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
KEEP A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING UP THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA RESULTING IN WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/12Z.
SCT-BKN 9K-12K FT AGL THRU MUCH OF VALID PD. ISOLD -SHRA UNTIL
26/17Z, THEN SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA THRU 27/04Z. EXPECT GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY TSRA OUTFLOW. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
E-SE LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH THE AFTERNOON GUSTINESS THIS WEEK.
MIN RHS WILL BE 30-40 PERCENT IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND 40-60
PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MIN RHS DROP TO
15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND 20-35 PERCENT IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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