232
FXUS65 KTWC 271533
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
833 AM MST WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, THEN TRENDING WARMER INTO
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
A SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD DECK IS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TRACK
THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR BIT OF MOISTURE IN
THE AREA THANKS TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM,
NOGALES AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE A TEMPERATURE OF 66
A DEWPOINT OF 64 AND AN RH OF 93%, THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND
AND INHIBIT THE CHANCES FOR MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS INDICATE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND OTHERS SHOW NEARLY NOTHING POPPING UP. THE LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY IMPACT FROM THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE "COOLER". HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 90-95 DEGREES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 65-70 IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 253 AM MST WED AUG 27 2025/
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE DEVELOPED YESTERDAY ON THE NE FLANK OF
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE, WHICH WAS 600 MILES WEST OF THE BAJA TIP
AS OF 230 AM. THIS CLOUD COVER NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS AND NOT SURE HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PLUME. YUMA RADAR WAS SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CA. NO DISTINCTIVE ECHOS SHOWING UP, AS OF YET,
ON TUCSON RADAR SOUTH OF NOGALES. IF THIS CLOUD COVER HOLDS, TODAY
MAY TURN OUT TO BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE
TODAY ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE. OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT A LOW GRADE
MONSOON FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND LABOR DAY WITH BEST CHANCES
EACH DAY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS FAVORING SOUTH AND EAST
OF TUCSON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THEN AT
OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW INTO LABOR DAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 28/12Z.
SCT-BKN 9K-12K FT AGL THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PD WITH ISOLD TO WDLY
SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA. EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY TSRA
OUTFLOW. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE E-SE LESS THAN 12 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 MPH WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS. MIN RHS WILL BE
30-40 PERCENT IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND 40-60 PERCENT IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MIN RHS DROP TO 15-25 PERCENT IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND TO 20-35 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MALARKEY
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