679
FXUS65 KTWC 272032
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
132 PM MST WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, THEN TRENDING WARMER INTO
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN
GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE CLOUDS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA IS IN
PART THANKS TO TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE THAT CONTINUES ITS
NORTHWARD TRACK AND ON OFF SHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
STEERING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
FAIR BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA AS OBSERVED BY THE 18Z TUS
SOUNDING WITH A 1.61 INCH PWAT, THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND
AND INHIBIT THE CHANCES FOR MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LOW, LESS THAN 1000J/KG OF MU CAPE AND
DCAPE. AS OF NOON, THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
EAST OF TUCSON. A SECONDARY IMPACT FROM THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE "COOLER". HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 90-95 DEGREES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 65-70 IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AND THEN ESSENTIALLY GET ABSORBED BY THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE
ABSORPTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT HERE IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA
ALLOWING FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS AND SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 100S BY
THE WEEKEND AND THEN HOVER AROUND 95-100 THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 29/00Z.
SCT TO OVC CLOUDS AOA 8K TO 10K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFT
28/07Z WHEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TO BECOME FEW TO SCT AOA 10K TO
13K FT AGL. TOMORROW AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO SCT TO BKN
BY 28/19Z AOA 10K TO 13K FT AGL AND PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS AND SHOWERS NOW THROUGH 28/03Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM
28/20 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH STORMS AND
SHOWERS EXPECT BRIEF, MODERATE RAINFALL AND BREEZY, ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 30KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS. MIN RHS WILL BE 25-35 PERCENT IN THE
LOW ELEVATIONS AND 40-55 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN MIN RHS DROP TO 15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS
AND TO 20-35 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH LABOR DAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MALARKEY
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