879
FXUS65 KTWC 120907
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
207 AM MST FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. GUSTY
WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, BLOWING DUST AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON ON SATURDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEXT WEEK,
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS EAST OF TUCSON AND BELOW NORMAL PWATS
WEST OF TUCSON. TUCSON MOISTURE LEVELS ARE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
BECAUSE OF THIS EXPECT SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO YESTERDAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON WITH TUCSON AGAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH
INCREASES 500 MB WINDS TO 30-35 KTS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
STORMS SEEING STRONG AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. THE 12/00Z HREF DOES SHOW
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A ROTATING STORM OR TWO EAST OF TUCSON THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING FAST WHICH COULD CUT DOWN
SOME ON THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT, BUT WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH. OVERNIGHT THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SOME MEMBERS OF THE HREF. THE BULK OF THIS
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY OVER GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES.
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH BEING FURTHER EAST THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO
BE FURTHER EAST. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
COCHISE COUNTY. AS A RESULT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN COCHISE COUNTY AND THE
AZ/NM BORDER. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY THANKS TO THE TROUGH SCOURING
OUT MOISTURE AS IT EXITS THE REGION. THIS IS A TYPICAL
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN FOR THIS POINT IN THE MONSOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN REBOUNDING TO AROUND
NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER.
NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO FILTER BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY
FOR RAIN CHANCES WITH NBM POPS 20-40 PERCENT.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 13/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8K-12K FT AGL AFT 12/17Z. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KTUS-KOLS-KCGZ LINE THRU 13/04Z. KDUG
AND KSAD TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE TSRA. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE, SLY/SWLY SFC WIND AT 10-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS
THRU 13/04Z. SFC WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH SATURDAY, LOWERING INTO THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
TUCSON AREA EASTWARD TODAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR COCHISE COUNTY AND EAST SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY SATURDAY. DRY AREA-WIDE SUNDAY, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON RETURN AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS, EXPECT 20-FOOT WINDS TO BE 15 MPH OR
LESS, WITH SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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