793
FXUS65 KTWC 140843
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
143 AM MST SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN MOISTURE
RETURNS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LEADING TO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
TODAY, SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
DRY AIR INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY WARMING
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INFILTRATE BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW PWAT VALUES CREEPING
BACK AROUND NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL LEADING TO 15-30
PERCENT POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES DECREASE A LITTLE AND ARE
MAINLY CONFINED TO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND A
LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PWAT VALUES WILL BE 25-75 PERCENT
OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RIGHT NOW THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE MAINLY WEST OF TUCSON. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WESTWARD THEN
EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 15/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6K-10K FT AGL THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 8 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE
TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN 20-35 PERCENT THEREAFTER. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW THEN A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STORM CHANCES WILL BE BETTER
LATER IN THE WEEK THAN EARLIER. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE 8-12 MPH
WITH SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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