838
FXUS65 KTWC 142044
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
144 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER TODAY, THEN MOISTURE RETURNS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY, SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
*DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
*MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, BRINGING VARIABLE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MODESTLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES. GUSTY WINDS, BLOWING DUST, AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
DISCUSSION
OUR OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER SONORA/CHIHUAHUA MX, AND A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS PASSING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BROAD WESTERLY FLOW IS NOW PRESENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD DRYING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED LOW-TOP CUMULUS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON ARE PEAKING
IN THE 80S AND 90S DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MEXICO RIDGE EXPANDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME MODEST WARMING
OF A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ALSO BECOMES A BIT MORE INVITING FOR MOISTURE TO BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BROADEN AND EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH BETTER MOISTURE CYCLING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.25", GIVE
OR TAKE, WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO
OUR TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERNS, THE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK MAY BE DEPENDENT ON THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S ACTIVITY. REGARDLESS, WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST
COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES STARTING MIDWEEK THANKS TO THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 16/00Z.
SCT CLOUDS 6K-10K FT AGL THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 8 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. 6K-10K SCT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15/20Z WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND MONDAY,
THEN 20-35 PERCENT THEREAFTER. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, THEN
A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE BETTER LATER IN THE WEEK THAN EARLIER. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE 8-12 MPH WITH SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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