692
FXUS65 KTWC 142207
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
307 PM MST TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS
WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WITH A WARMING TREND ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SIT OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED
OVER THE AREA, WITH THE 18Z TUCSON UPPER AIR OBSERVATION
RECORDING PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1 INCH LOWER THAN IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN EASTERN LOCATIONS HAS
PRODUCED SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TODAY, WITH A
PLEASANT BUT BREEZY AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
CONUS OVER THE COMING DAYS, KEEPING SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA IN A
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, THE FORECAST WILL ALSO BE DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY CHILLIER WITH THE FIRST COOLER
PUSH OF THE SEASON UNDERWAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS DESERT
LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS THIS
WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKER SOUTHEAST
PACIFIC LOW, WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHERE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE HOWEVER WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE, WITH TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES SHOWING HIGHS POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM NEAR NORMAL
(GIVEN A WEAKER SYSTEM) TO DROPPING BELOW NORMAL (WITH A STRONGER
WAVE).
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 16/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC-SCT CLOUDS 5K-8K FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING,
THEN CLEARING AFTER 15/03Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS RETURN AT 4K-7K FEET
AFTER 15/10Z, THEN BECOMING MAINLY SKC AFTER 15/18Z. SURFACE WINDS
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TONIGHT, BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 8 TO
12 KNOTS AFTER 15/18Z WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN THIS WEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
BE AT LEAST 30+ PERCENT IN THE VALLEY'S THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MIN RH VALUES LOWER INTO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 20-FOOT
WINDS MAINLY 15 MPH OR LESS THIS WEEK, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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