245
FXUS65 KTWC 160909
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
209 AM MST THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL
THIS WEEK. EXPECT A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN. AFTER A COOL START (LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE DESERTS AND
40S FOR VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON), TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST VALLEYS, TRANSLATING TO LEVELS ABOUT 5 TO 11
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL
REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A MORE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REGIME SETS UP DURING
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY. FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, A CUT-OFF LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BUT
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE. THIS SYSTEM COULD HELP BRING A BIT
OF MOISTURE MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS (~10% CHANCE)
AROUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 17/12Z. GENERALLY SKC THRU THE VALID
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
16/19Z AND AGAIN AFT 17/04Z, OTHERWISE RANGING BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS INTO NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS MAINLY 15 MPH OR
LESS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT (~10%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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