967
FXUS65 KTWC 162035
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 PM MST THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL
THIS WEEK. EXPECT A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS KEEPS UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS
TODAY ARE TOPPING OUT AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND WILL BE
SIMILAR TOMORROW.
FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE BREAKS OFF THE POLAR JET AND CLOSES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
PUT SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA UNDER A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING,
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE PACIFIC LOW OPENING BACK UP AND MOVING EAST INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME AROUND MID-WEEK, HOWEVER TIMING
REMAINS INCONSISTENT. UNDER SPLIT FLOW THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LACK
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE, BUT MAY BRING SOME
MODEST MOISTURE WITH IT. FOR NOW SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOW
END (~5-10% CHANCE) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HANG AROUND NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNTIL THIS WAVE ARRIVES,
BUT A BIG COLD AIR PUSH ISN'T EXPECTED WITH IT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT MOST AS IT CROSSES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/00Z.
FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 3.5K-7K FT THRU 17/03Z AND AGAIN AFT
17/18Z THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD, OTHERWISE SKC. SFC WINDS WILL BE
W/SW AT 7-12 KTS ALONG THE INT'L BORDER AND AZ/NM BORDER AND W/NW AT
6-10KTS ELSEWHERE THRU 17/03Z. OVERNIGHT SFC WINDS BECOME TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. AFT 17/18, SFC WINDS BECOME NW/W AT
6-12 KTS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS KTUS EASTWARD THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS INTO NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS MAINLY 15 MPH OR
LESS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT (~10%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...TETRAULT
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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