214
FXUS65 KTWC 180905
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH EXITS
AND ARIZONA MOVES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH WITH A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW
SITTING OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN THIS STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TUCSON WILL SEE
CHANCES OF 90 DEGREE HIGHS EACH DAY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES TUESDAY. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 90 OR GREATER
ARE 10 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY, 50 PERCENT TUESDAY, AND 25
PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO MOVES ONSHORE, OPENS UP WEDNESDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA.
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BRINGS IN MODEST
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST
OF ARIZONA. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW NBM POPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND A SMALL COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSES ENSEMBLES SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER WARMUP TO START NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 19/12Z.
SKC THROUGH 18/18Z, THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS NW AT
5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE SFC WINDS
VARIABLE AND UNDER 8 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS INTO NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS MAINLY 15 MPH
OR LESS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. CHANCE FOR BREEZY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WARMING TO NORMAL OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL SEE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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