281
FXUS65 KTWC 190854
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
154 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH
A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA. THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL STAY LIKE THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE
MAIN STORM TRACK STAYING NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING 2-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUCSON COULD SEE 90 DEGREE HIGHS
DURING THIS STRETCH WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NBM PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS FOR 90 DEGREES OR WARMER ARE 75
PERCENT WITH CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS AROUND 91 DEGREES.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND OPENS UP AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. AHEAD OF IT MODEST MOISTURE WILL
BE ADVECTED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODELS BRING THE
TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM EXTENDING DOWN TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING ELEVATED
SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL
OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 20/12Z.
SKC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 20/00Z. SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY AT 6-10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, SFC WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, EXCEPT WEDNESDAY WHEN
RH VALUES INCREASE 5-10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS MAINLY 15 MPH OR
LESS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. CHANCE FOR BREEZY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL
SEE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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