115
FXUS65 KTWC 200843
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
143 AM MST MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST OF TUCSON.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH
A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA. THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL STAY LIKE THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE
MAIN STORM TRACK STAYING NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 2-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TUCSON COULD SEE 90 DEGREE HIGHS DURING THIS STRETCH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES
BOTH DAYS FOR 90 DEGREES OR WARMER ARE 75 PERCENT WITH CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS AROUND 91 DEGREES TUESDAY AND 90 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND OPENS UP AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. AHEAD OF IT MODEST MOISTURE WILL
BE ADVECTED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODELS BRING THE
TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM EXTENDING DOWN TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH BRINGING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 21/12Z.
SKC THRU THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, SFC WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, EXCEPT WEDNESDAY WHEN
RH VALUES INCREASE 5-10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS MAINLY 15 MPH OR
LESS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. CHANCE FOR BREEZY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL 2-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
COOL BACK DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION THE MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST OF TUCSON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL SEE UP TO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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