590
FXUS65 KTWC 210824
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
124 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH ARIZONA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 29N AND 127W. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY, AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
INTO NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY AND EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF
SANTA CRUZ, COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. THE MODELS SHOW A SLUG OF
HIGHER PWATS OF AROUND 0.80 INCHES ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS (MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS) ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. POPS ARE 15-20 PERCENT
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT MOST.
ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND
A TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA, WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. PWATS WILL LOWER BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND HIGHS WILL
LOWER 4-9 DEGREES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF TUCSON ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND
SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH.
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN TAKES PLACE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 22/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL 21/20Z. AFT 21/20Z, FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT
10K-13K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AFT 22/04Z, MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. SFC WIND LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE VALID PERIOD. SFC
WIND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION UNTIL 21/18Z AND AGAIN AFT 22/03Z,
FAVORING A WLY/NWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT
7 DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, LOWERING TO 2-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-
25 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THURSDAY, WHEN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12-17 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 28 MPH WILL
OCCUR TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 10-18
PERCENT RANGE TODAY, INCREASING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE (AND
HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS) WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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