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FXUS65 KTWC 212043
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
143 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM TUCSON WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. OUR
FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNDER THE WANING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS
BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT US IS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
31N/125W. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER ON THURSDAY. WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW, WE'RE ALREADY
SEEING SIGNS OF INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT'S JUMPING UP TO ABOUT 0.8 INCHES TO 1
INCH. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS ABOVE 700 MB WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE COMBINATION OF THIS INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TO THE WEST
OF TUCSON OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO LOCALES FROM SELLS EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE AN EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO WITHIN ANY MORE ROBUST SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE A LOW
IMPACT/MINOR EVENT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS MOSTLY LESS THAN 0.05". HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW BREEZES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN COCHISE
COUNTY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT FOLLOWED BY A MORE ZONAL PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 23/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10K-13K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL
THRU ABOUT 22/12Z, THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS 10-13K FT AGL AND AOA 20K FT
AGL THRU THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA AFT 22/06Z
MAINLY WEST OF KTUS/KOLS, THEN INTO THE KTUS/KOLS REGION AFT 22/12Z.
SFC WIND LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE VALID PERIOD. SFC WIND MAINLY
WLY/NWLY THRU 22/03Z, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, RETURNING
TO MORE SWLY/WLY AFT 22/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4-7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LOWERING TO 2-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. 20-
FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THURSDAY, WHEN
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12-17 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 28 MPH WILL
OCCUR TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 15-25
PERCENT RANGE (AND HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS) WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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