222
FXUS65 KTWC 220800
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
100 AM MST WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY, WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY AND POTENTIALLY A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO, THROUGH NEW MEXICO, ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, JUST WEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY,
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PIMA COUNTY,
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE ALSO NOTED EARLIER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PIMA
COUNTY. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED IN THE AXIS OF DEEPER
PWATS PUSHING NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND
DIFLUENCE ALOFT. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST.
FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 0.90 INCHES. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS (POPS OF
10-20 PERCENT) FROM TUCSON WESTWARD INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, THEN
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY/TUCSON METRO AND AREAS EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY, SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A FEW
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH, WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM TO 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SANTA CRUZ, COCHISE AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.
ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND
A TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA. PWATS WILL LOWER BACK DOWN
TO AROUND 0.30 INCHES BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND HIGHS WILL LOWER 4-
8 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF TUCSON ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS THURSDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 MPH.
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN TAKES PLACE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, AS READINGS STAY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 23/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10K-13K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL
THRU 22/20Z, THEN CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THE END OF
THE VALID PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA AREAWIDE THRU 22/20Z, THEN
MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU 23/06Z. SFC WIND LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE
VALID PERIOD. SFC WIND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION UNTIL 22/18Z AND AGAIN
AFT 23/03Z, FAVORING A SWLY/WLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES TODAY, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, LOWERING TO 2-4
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY, WHEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12-17 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 28 MPH WILL OCCUR
TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 15-25
PERCENT RANGE (AND HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS) THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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