750
FXUS65 KTWC 222105
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY, WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY AND POTENTIALLY EMBEDDED LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY IS PRESENT FROM SELLS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR
THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION HAS RANGED FROM TRACE TO 0.07 INCHES
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN THE VALLEYS AND WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM
15-25 MPH. OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DRY AIR
WILL BE SHUNTED BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE CURRENT CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THIS DRY
AIR IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY AND WILL PROPAGATE AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOWS
IN THE CURRENT CAMS, KEEPING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FAR
EASTERN COCHISE/GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES UNTIL ROUGHLY 4/5 AM MST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND KEEP
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES, AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO DAY RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS SATURDAY BRINGING THE TEMPERATURES
TO 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW ALOFT KEEPS
THESE TEMPERATURES AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER RIDGE THEN
BEGINS TO FORM TUESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE CHANCES
FOR 90 DEGREES BEING 25%, 50%, AND 33% ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND
THURSDAY RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 24/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 9K-13K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL
WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS THRU 23/12Z. SFC WIND LESS THAN
12 KTS THRU THE VALID PERIOD. SFC WIND SWLY/WLY AT 6 TO 12KTS
THRU 23/03Z THEN AGAIN 24/18Z THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, SFC WIND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND GENERALLY UNDER 8
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES TODAY, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, LOWERING TO 2-4
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY, WHEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12-17 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 28 MPH WILL OCCUR
TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 15-25
PERCENT RANGE (AND HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS) THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
TETRAULT
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