486
FXUS65 KTWC 162200
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE ON TAP THIS EVENING,
FOLLOWING OUR FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AS IT EXITS
THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE BEGINNING TUESDAY, AS OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 2 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN FALL
10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA,
AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LEAVES US WITH A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS, WHICH WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SAN PEDRO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
ARIZONA EARLY TUESDAY, RETURNING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND IMPROVED
CHANCES FOR LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND AREA MOUNTAIN SNOW MID WEEK.
LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION TOTALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50" ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UP TO
1.00" OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUCH AS SUCH AS MT LEMMON, RINCON
MOUNTAINS, MT GRAHAM AND THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. SNOW TOTALS FOR
OUR SOUTHERN SKY ISLAND SUMMITS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 INCHES.
HANNAGAN MEADOW SNOW TOTALS WILL END UP A LITTLE HIGHER FOR THIS
PERIOD...UP TO 10 - 12 INCHES, DUE TO LOCAL UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOLLOWS LATE IN THE
WEEK AND TEMPORARILY REBUILDS ACROSS THE SE AZ AND SW NM, BEFORE
THE THIRD AND FINAL UPPER LOW IN THIS PATTERN REMAINS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF YOUR WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 7K-10K FT AGL AREAWIDE WITH ISOLD -SHRA THROUGH
04Z THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS THROUGH 09Z THEN CLOUDS TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 7K-10K AGL FROM 17/17Z TO 18/00Z.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS 18/15Z. SFC SOUTHWEST WIND 15-20 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS THRU 17/02Z, THEN LESS THAN 10 KTS AND VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SULPHUR
SPRINGS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED VSBY 1-3SM BR, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KDUG,
KFHU AND KALK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A STORM SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
AND THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS WILL FOLLOW AND MOVE OVER THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE 5 TO 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY,
WITH MIN RH VALUES 30-40 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 60-70+ PERCENT
IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...TRIPOLI
AVIATION...TRIPOLI
FIRE WEATHER....TRIPOLI
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page