140
FXUS65 KTWC 052121
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
221 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY,
STRENGTHENING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. SATURDAY THE TROUGH GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN
FLOW AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL OR A DEGREE
OR TWO ABOVE IT. SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES SHOW
THE RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OR JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO A
WARMUP AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THEN 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEEK. THE NBM IS HINTING THAT TUCSON COULD SEE HIGHS OF 80 DEGREES
LATE NEXT WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 07/00Z.
SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY 8-12 KTS THROUGH 06/02Z
THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT OTHER TIMES SFC WINDS VRBL LESS
THAN 8 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A
WARMING TREND STARTS THIS WEEKEND WHERE HIGHS WILL RUN UP TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 8
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH
OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 23-33 PERCENT
RANGE TODAY, LOWERING TO 16-26 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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