188
FXUS65 KTWC 160944
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
244 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS APPROACHING NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
WHILE A DRY TROUGH HAS CROSSED THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, THE REGION REMAINS UNDER POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY, BUT A FEW DEGREES
AT MOST. OTHERWISE HIGHS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND LOOK
TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WHAT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR RECORD OR RECORD BREAKING HIGHS ARE
FORECAST, DEPENDING ON THE DAY.
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME-
FRAME CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHING DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST.
WHILE THIS SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST AND POTENTIALLY BRINGS IN A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS MAINLY KEEP THE STRONGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WEST
OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN ARRIVAL OF (LIKELY
UNIMPRESSIVE) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 17/12Z.
MAINLY SKC WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 11-16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
20- FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH VALUES LOWER TO 12-22 PERCENT ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS/MALARKEY
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