780
FXUS65 KTWC 171002
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
302 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN ANOMALOUSLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. WITH THIS RIDGE CENTER NEARBY, FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS WEEK REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO, BRINGING HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES. FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SIT WITHIN A DEGREE OR EXCEED RECORD LEVELS FOR
EACH RESPECTIVE DAY.
NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WHILE AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS AND
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. MEAN ENSEMBLE HEIGHTS IN GUIDANCE FALL
OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, BUT KEEP DEEP TROUGHING TO THE WEST.
THIS MAY BRING IN A MODEST COOL-DOWN AND POTENTIALLY CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT IF DEEPEST TROUGHING
REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST AS CURRENTLY FAVORED...MOSTLY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/12Z.
MAINLY SKC WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS 12
TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 12-22 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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