307
FXUS65 KTWC 182034
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
134 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH POTENTIALLY
RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON IF TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL OR
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING, WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE STRONG RIDGE REMAINS
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO STARTING TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, LIKELY BREAKING DAILY RECORDS.
AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO TEXAS, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
WILL LIKELY SIT ON THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH'S INFLUENCE, WITH MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPING THE NEGATIVE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WEST/NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEARLY STALL OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO ARIZONA LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AND A DOWNWARD, ALBEIT STILL ABOVE NORMAL, TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 20/00Z.
MAINLY SKC WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS 11 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, THEN 15-19
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 12-22 PERCENT EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
20-FOOT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. A PACIFIC
SYSTEM APPROACHES MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES
TO 25- 40 PERCENT AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MALARKEY
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