037
FXUS65 KTWC 190827
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
128 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH POTENTIALLY
RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCALES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME CIRROFORM
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT IS CENTERED
NEAR 28N/122W. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY RECORDS IN JEOPARDY
AT MANY LOCALES. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS.
WE'LL START TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OPENING UP
A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AS LONGWAVE TROUGHINESS WILL
BE DOMINANT ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE LATCHING ONTO A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL
DISTURBANCES BRUSHING THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS. POPS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING BUT FOR NOW THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER LOOKS
TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BUT STILL REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 20/12Z. MAINLY SKC-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODEST
COOLING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
12-22 PERCENT EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS LESS
THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT
AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
76
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page