234
FXUS65 KTWC 191934
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1234 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCALES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND FORECAST ITERATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTFUL WEATHER. PERIODIC WISPY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS OVERHEAD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S (15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THROUGH TUESDAY. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN JEOPARDY FOR SOME
LOCALES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS
EAST, TROUGHINESS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE IN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SAG INTO THE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TERRITORY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS OF NOW, NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION (OVER A TENTH OF
AN INCH) LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE DISTURBANCES WITH SOME VARIANCE IN THEIR TIMING. HOWEVER,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, INCREASING CLOUD COVER, AND A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE EQUATION FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 21/00Z.
MAINLY SKC-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODEST
COOLING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
12-22 PERCENT EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS LESS
THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT
AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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